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Increasing worries have emerged regarding the chance of armed conflict among Horn of Africa countries, the Ethiopian government and the Eritrean government, as confrontational discourse has intensified in the past few weeks.

What Did Ethiopia Said?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, demands for access to the Red Sea through Eritrea has provoked a intense war of words.

The Ethiopian leader previously announced in 2023 that his nation's sea access was an crucial concern, statements that Eritrean authorities ignored.

Diplomatic connections between the both governments have often been tense. Following a prolonged battle for independence, Eritrea, which has a long sea border, officially seceded from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, leaving it landlocked.

Subsequently, a military clash erupted in which over a hundred thousand people died.

Recent Comments from Ethiopia's Leadership

Abiy and military leader the army commander have publicly asserted sovereignty of Eritrean coastal city of the port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the boundary - and hinted at the wish to seize it militarily.

Recently, Abiy said Ethiopia's "error" of losing access to the Red Sea as a because of Eritrea secession would be "rectified soon".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that Assab was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be restored "by force".

Eritrea's Reaction to the Threats

In the face of ongoing warnings from Ethiopia, Eritrea's response has been restricted to short statements on X from Information Minister the minister.

He has rejected Ethiopian requests for maritime entry describing it as "risky" and a "harmful plan" of "irredentism" – a approach of claiming back previous domains.

Government spokespeople alerted on recently that attempts to validate "blatant hostility" would have serious consequences for Ethiopia and its neighbors and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Preparations on the Ground

There have been little evidence of large-scale army activities in the border areas between the neighboring states.

Nonetheless, in Ethiopia, government media has shown graduation ceremonies of many recruits at multiple army bases.

The leader of staff section of the military, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, stated recently in an conversation that the defense forces was in a "reliable position" as "many thousands of youths" were joining it, which he said was "a warning to our opponents".

Historical Roots of the Tension

For decades from the late 19th century, the territory was governed by Italian rulers.

After Italy's defeat, it was then administered by the UK forces before becoming a federated part of the Ethiopian empire.

But in the early 1960s Emperor Haile Selassie I ended this arrangement and Eritrea became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A extended civil war followed, finishing with military reversal in 1991. Independence was then confirmed by the population in a vote in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were good relations between the governments in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they clashed over the precise positioning of their shared boundary, leading to conflict in 1998.

Even though this ended in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was partially applied, and the both countries stayed at loggerheads.

This ended in 2018, when the Prime Minister made overtures to Eritrea's leader President Isaias. The both leaders agreed to a declaration that the conflict was finished – a decision that gained Abiy the international recognition.

The both administrations were then cooperators in the country's 2020-2022 internal conflict in the northern region.

But relations have later worsened again.