Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
